Can Iran Be Reclaimed With Bare Hands?
A Personal Quest for Truth: A Comprehensive Analysis of Why the Ruling Cartel Has Not Fallen
Before anything else, I honor the memory of all those who sacrificed their lives for the freedom of this land; their memory flows through my veins as long as I live.
This writing is not a political manifesto, but rather a completely personal analysis and examination for which I take full responsibility. The likelihood of error is high, and my only goal is to open new intellectual pathways for myself to make better decisions in the future. This collection of notes will be published in several parts.
I am not a member of any party or group, and my only wish is the freedom of my homeland. I ask you, if you are not agents of the regime, not to marginalize this human dialogue with insults; I read your opinions with open arms.
Part One: Anatomizing the Power Structure
The Core Problem: A State or an Occupying Cartel?
Can Iran be reclaimed with bare hands? The bitter truth is that civil resistance works against powers that maintain at least some “ethics” or “dependence on their people,” but we are not dealing with a “state”; we are confronting an “occupying cartel.”
The Essential Difference Between State and Cartel
In political science, a “state” is an institution that needs taxes and the consent of its people to survive; meaning if the people do not cooperate, the state becomes paralyzed. Within Robert Dahl’s framework, democratic or even authoritarian governments still need some form of support or at least tolerance from their people[1].
But in Iran, we face a phenomenon that lies outside these democratic frameworks. This regime is a “cartel”; it steals oil from beneath the people’s feet, sells it through ghost fleets, and spends the money on mercenaries whose job is to suppress those same people[2]. When the ruling power’s pocket is not connected to the people’s table, the people’s vote and opinion mean “nothing” to them.
They behave like an occupying force whose only goals are resource extraction and preserving the survival of cartel members at the cost of destroying the host (the nation). This is what can be called a “Cartel State” – a structure in which the boundaries between national interests and the ruling network’s interests have completely dissolved[3].
Systematic Violence: When Breathing Becomes a Crime
Žižek explains in his book “Violence” that the most dangerous type of violence is not overt shooting in the streets, but “systematic violence” that flows through the hidden layers of life[4].
In Iran, violence means:
· Deliberately starving the people
· Cutting internet to suffocate voices
· Taking livelihoods hostage of families
The regime has built a structure in which our “survival” depends on our “silence.” This is administrative and livelihood terrorism; by creating perpetual crises, the regime imprisons people in the lower layers of Maslow’s hierarchy (basic needs) so they lack the capacity to think about freedom.
Why the “3.5 Percent Rule” Is Locked in Iran?
Erica Chenoweth’s research shows that if 3.5 percent of the population remains consistently engaged, regimes fall[5]. But she herself notes that this rule falters against regimes intent on “mass slaughter.”
When we are dealing with a cartel that proved in November 2019 it could harvest 1,500 people in a few days, population numbers become merely a “larger target” for shooting. The regime in Iran does not fear crowds; it uses crowds as a tool for “displaying terror” to paralyze the will of millions by killing thousands.
The Moral Dead End of Civil Resistance
Classical civil resistance is based on the assumption that “we give enough martyrs until the soldier’s conscience awakens.” But according to Frantz Fanon’s view in “The Wretched of the Earth,” in an occupation space, the suppression force is no longer a “soldier of the homeland” whose conscience can be awakened; he is a “salaried mercenary” who has been brainwashed and whose financial survival depends on eliminating us[6].
Here, defenseless sacrifice and insistence on unilateral pacifism does not awaken any conscience, but only leads to “attrition and destruction of good people.”
Nelson Mandela also reached the conclusion that when dealing with a beast that only understands force, standing with empty hands is not courage, but extension of the occupier’s time[7]. He launched the military wing (Umkhonto we Sizwe) to change the balance of power.
Part Two: Why Strikes No Longer Break the Regime’s Back?
The Replacement Doctrine: Parallel Pieces
The regime has designed a “security antivirus” for every strike. They have built parallel institutions to neutralize the effect of people’s “non-cooperation”:
• If teachers strike, thousands of seminary students are deployed to schools through various programs
• If technical engineers protest, loyal IRGC and Basij retirees are substituted
• If workers strike, contract or forced labor is brought in
The regime’s goal is that even if a strike occurs, “public services” are cut off to the people so the people turn against the protesters, but “the wheels of cartel power and income” never stop.
Tehran Bazaar: A Giant Crushed in the Shadows
In the 1979 revolution, the bazaar was the economic backbone and strike pillar. But today, the cartel has marginalized the traditional bazaar by establishing “massive malls,” hidden ports, and shell companies.
The IRGC is now the largest importer and distributor of goods in Iran[8]. If a small shopkeeper closes his shop, he dies of hunger, but the cartel moves goods through unauthorized docks and its own distribution network.
Bazaar strikes are no longer the regime’s chokepoint, because the regime itself has become a “parallel and mafia-like market.”
Poverty as a Weapon: Empty Strike Fund
In all successful movements worldwide, there was a “strike fund”; money that supported striking workers so they would not starve. In Iran, the regime has deliberately collapsed the economy and turned people into “day laborers.”
When a worker does not know if he will have bread for his child tomorrow, he loses the capacity for prolonged strikes. The regime uses poverty and hunger as chains to bind the hands of the working class; poverty here is not an economic consequence, it is a “weapon of war.”
Trade Fragmentation: Division Among the Oppressed
The regime has cleverly fragmented the country’s trade body. It has erected tall walls of class privileges between permanent, contracted, and temporary workers:
• When the contract sector strikes, the permanent sector remains silent with minor temporary privileges
• Astronomical salaries of some managers alongside absolute poverty of workers destroys solidarity
• The absence of independent and powerful unions means each trade faces the cartel alone
This lack of “national trade solidarity” has turned strikes from a roaring flood into scattered springs that the regime easily dries up one by one.
Expertise Hostage-Taking: Modern Slavery
The regime forces specialists in vital sectors (oil, telecommunications, banking) to work through security files and taking their families hostage. In today’s world, if a petroleum engineer or IT specialist stops working, he faces not dismissal, but the charge of “sabotage and corruption on earth.”
The regime has taken expertise captive; here it is no longer about “work ethics,” but about threats of torture and execution to keep the cartel’s wheels turning.
Part Three: Financial Lifeline – Blood in the Monster’s Veins
Ghost Fleet: Black Magic of Survival
Many ask how the regime still has money for suppression with all these sanctions? The answer lies in the “Ghost Fleet.” Hundreds of identity-less tankers that, under flags of other countries and with radars turned off, move Iran’s oil[9].
According to reports from February 2026, the US government imposed new sanctions on 14 ships and 15 entities connected to this network[10]. This mafia network pours millions of dollars in cash daily directly into IRGC accounts.
This money enters neither the country’s budget nor is it spent on people’s bread; this is “special fuel for the suppression machine” that never runs out.
In January 2026, it was reported that about 60 shadow fleet tankers linked to Iran were stationed at Malaysian ports[11]. This shows the regime has created a complex and extensive network to circumvent sanctions.
Shadow Economy: Transnational Mafia
The regime has built a complex network of exchange offices and shell companies in Dubai, Turkey, Malaysia, and regional countries. International sanctions act like a torn net where large fish (IRGC mafia) easily pass through while only ordinary people and honest merchants get caught.
The regime has not only not weakened from sanctions, but by creating a monopoly on “circumventing sanctions,” it has generated mythical wealth for the hard core of power[12].
Forced Taxation from People’s Tables: Rial Against Dollar
Every time the regime comes under pressure abroad, it covers its budget deficit by inflating the dollar and deliberate inflation, from the pockets of people inside. The regime has taken the Iranian people hostage as an “economic human shield.”
The more they become cash-strapped internationally, by devaluing the national currency, they steal our purchasing power to pay for their military expenses and mercenaries.
Financial Vulnerability of Protesters: Unequal Battle
While the regime is connected to hidden global banking networks and can move currency, domestic protesters and strikers have no access to any international financial resources.
The battle is completely unequal: the regime fights with oil dollars and the capabilities of a “quasi-state” while people fight with empty pockets and shrinking tables. Without physically cutting the cartel’s money arteries, civil struggle is like standing with bare hands against a tank.
Why Current Sanctions Are “Theatrical”?
Sanctions that only exist on paper and cannot physically stop the movement of ghost fleet tankers at sea are merely an administrative nuisance for the regime. As long as the cartel’s physical money artery (by blocking IRGC export ports) is not cut, the regime sees no reason to change behavior or retreat.
They have become accustomed to the “underground and black” economy and have mastered it.
Part Four: Iran Is “Occupied” Right Now
The Illusion of “Colonial Danger” and the Reality of “Current Occupation”
Fear of becoming a colony in case of foreign intervention or regime collapse is the biggest “defensive propaganda wall” that the ruling cartel has built to hide the reality of current occupation.
The naked truth, proven by economic statistics from 2024 to 2026, is that Iran has now transformed from a “nation-state” into a “Cartel State” and possesses all the characteristics of an occupied and colonized land[13].
Contrary to independence slogans, Iran is currently trapped in a “monopsony” situation by China; where Beijing as hegemon dictates prices and conditions for extracting Iran’s resources in vague negotiations without competitor presence.
According to 2024-2026 data, about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports go to China. This means Iran is no longer in a competitive market, but has become a “captive supplier.”
Systematic Plunder (Revenue Haircut)
While an independent state would cash in national wealth, this cartel allows 33 percent of each barrel’s value to be swallowed in money laundering paths and intermediary networks[14]. This amount is actually the “occupiers’ fee” and global intermediaries’ payment for the power network’s survival.
|
Component |
Price/Percentage |
Source |
|
Iran oil discount vs. Brent |
$8-15/barrel |
[14] |
|
Revenue leak in intermediary networks |
33% |
[14] |
|
Exports to China |
90% |
2024-2026 data analysis |
|
IRGC economic control |
30% GDP |
[8] |
Table 1: Key indicators of Iran’s economic occupation
Occupation means plundering the future; by February 2026, more than 82 percent of the National Development Fund resources that belong to future generations have been drained to cover current and military expenses of the cartel.
This fund, which was supposed to be for long-term investments and future generations, has become the cartel’s current account.
Survival Priority Over Welfare
In this colonial structure, national interest boundaries have collapsed and absolute priority is given to securing IRGC cash flow, even if it comes at the cost of public budget collapse and absolute poverty of citizens.
Based on budgets through 2026, up to one-third of total oil exports have been placed directly at the disposal of the IRGC and armed forces[15].
China’s Monopsony Dictatorship: Auctioning Off Oil Reserves
The claim of “independence” and “looking to the East” in the cartel’s logic is actually a cover for falling into one of the world’s most dangerous economic traps: “monopsony.”
Dimensions of This Modern Colonialism
The Price-Setting Master: When you have only one major customer, they are no longer a buyer but a “price dictator.” Independent Chinese refineries (known as Teapots), aware of the cartel’s desperation, impose conditions that bear no resemblance to global trade.
Astronomical Discounts: Data from 2024 to 2026 shows that Iran must offer between 8 to 14 dollars (and in some periods up to 15 dollars) discount per barrel compared to Brent benchmark price. This means annually about 6.6 billion dollars of pure Iranian wealth, before any other costs, flows directly into the Eastern hegemon’s pocket[14].
Liquidity Trap: China settles Iran’s oil not with credible currencies, but mainly with yuan (a currency with transfer limitations) or bartering with second and third-grade goods. The cartel accepts these conditions because it needs “immediate liquidity” to maintain the suppression apparatus, even at the cost of destroying the national trade balance.
Ruthless Extraction: Due to excessive need for money, the cartel has increased the depletion rate in old fields. This means conservation production has been sacrificed for maximum production and Iran’s oil reserves under this Eastern colonialism are undergoing irreparable technical destruction.
Biological and Intellectual Extraction: Iran as a Free Specialist Production Factory
The greatest type of modern colonialism is extracting “intelligence” from a nation. Iran today has become a free supplier of skilled labor for Germany, Canada, and neighbors.
Catastrophic Brain Drain Statistics
Based on 2024 reports:
• Between 2020 and 2021, Iranian migration rate to wealthy countries increased 141 percent from 48,000 to 115,000 people[16]
• For the first time in history, more than 100,000 Iranian students are studying abroad[17]
• The elite return rate to Iran is only 1 percent, while the global average for this indicator is 7 percent[17]
• In 2022, 6,500 doctors and medical specialists left the country
• Annually 3,000 nurses emigrate from Iran, while the government spends about $68,000 to train each nurse[17]
• 80 percent of medical students are thinking about emigration[17]
This means Iran pays all the exorbitant costs of higher education from the nation’s pocket, but the fruit of this investment is harvested completely free by competing economies. This is a “strategic hemorrhage” that will remove Iran from the development path for decades.
Part Five: History’s Lesson and the Necessity of Strategic Surgery
Nelson Mandela: When Ethics Fail Against Barbarism
Nelson Mandela learned in and out of prison that pacifism is a “strategy,” not a sacred idol. When he saw the apartheid regime open fire on peaceful demonstrations, he said:
“A purely pacifist response to a regime that only speaks the language of weapons is a form of surrender.”
He launched the military wing (Umkhonto we Sizwe) to change the balance of power[18]. He understood that you cannot stand before a monster only with ethics; the monster must first be “restrained.”
The apartheid regime, to tarnish his image and delegitimize his struggle, described him with labels like “terrorist,” “violent communist,” and “dangerous agitator” – the same tactic the Islamic Republic uses today against protesters.
Strategic Surgery: What Is Targeted Military Intervention?
When we speak of intervention, we do not mean occupation of the country by foreign soldiers or bombing residential areas (what the regime propagandizes to frighten people). We mean “surgery on cartel power centers”:
• Tharallah bases
• Suppression drone control centers
• State media (propaganda mouthpiece)
• Torture prisons
• IRGC command centers
This intervention means disabling “instruments of crime,” not harming the nation.
Smart military intervention means disabling:
· Radar systems
· Suppressors’ wireless communication network
· Military helicopter nests that move forces
· Filtering and jamming systems
When suppression forces realize they no longer have “technological superiority” and their connection to the center is cut, they lose the ability to shoot at people. Intervention means “leveling the battlefield” in favor of bare-handed people.
Legitimacy of Self-Defense: Neighbor and Fire
When someone has attacked our home, is killing our children, and has locked all exit doors, getting help from an external force to “disarm the aggressor” is the essence of rationality and legitimate defense.
This is not betrayal of the homeland; real betrayal is allowing the occupying cartel to burn the entire homeland to black ash.
Critics may say this is auctioning off independence; but when the occupier has put a gun to our forehead, independence was slaughtered long ago. Getting help to control the fire is not betrayal; real betrayal is prioritizing “sanctity of words” over “human lives.”
Part Six: Why Iran Will Not Become Syria or Libya?
Unified Nation Versus Scattered Tribes
“Becoming Syria,” is a tool the regime uses to feed on our fear of civil war to paralyze the will for change. But Iran has fundamental differences from Syria and Libya:
Syria fell to that state due to deep religious and tribal divisions and minority rule over majority, while in Iran, our enemy is not a religion or an ethnicity. Our enemy is a “corrupt occupying class” that all Iranian ethnicities (Kurd, Turk, Persian, Lor, Arab, etc.) equally detest.
Iran, unlike Libya which was a collection of tribes without cohesive national identity, is an ancient “nation-state” with thousands of years of historical identity. Iranian nationalism and patriotism is the strongest barrier against fragmentation and civil war. Our pain is shared and our enemy is shared; this very “shared pain” guarantees our integrity after the cartel’s fall.
Specialists: Reconstruction Army
We have millions of educated engineers, doctors, managers, and specialists inside and outside who are thirsty for homeland reconstruction. Iran does not suffer from “lack of capable people.” Unlike Libya, we have deep-rooted administrative and academic structures that are only occupied by cartel pieces.
With the removal of the pyramid’s top, this body can quickly return the country to rational orbit.
The Army: Chained Giant and the Enigma of Silence
I believe we should not be deceived by the army’s silence in the events of 2025 and attribute it to loyalty to the cartel; Iran’s army today is not an independent institution, but a “chained giant” that has been occupied from within by ideological-political pieces and any movement within it is suppressed by IRGC espionage network (SAS) before birth.
The regime, through engineering poverty and livelihood hostage-taking, has placed the army body in a situation where concern for bread and fear of family homelessness has paralyzed the will to protest; this is the same “systematic violence” Žižek speaks of.
But this silence does not mean the death of the army’s national identity; the army is waiting for a “decisive moment.” Army soldiers and officers will only break the chain when they see the balance of power has changed with external military surgery against the IRGC and the suppression machine has been weakened.
At that point, the army, unlike Syria’s sectarian forces, can stand as the “tent pole of national security” and prevent chaos and criminal group formation.
Institutions Ready to Govern the Country
Many of Iran’s ministries and governmental organizations, despite managerial corruption, have a healthy expert body. At the moment of collapse, unlike Libya where no institutions existed, in Iran it is only necessary for “valueless and corrupt managers” to give their place to “devoted specialists” so service delivery wheels do not stop.
We do not start from zero; we emerge from beneath the rubble.
Part Seven: Surgery Model and Victory Scenario
Closing the Theft Route and Machine Surgery
With the intensification of Trump administration’s recent pressures on the “Ghost Fleet,” the cartel’s financial artery is under more pressure than ever[19]. Targeted intervention must bring this pressure to an operational level; physical seizure of tankers means cutting mercenary cash flow.
When the instrument of crime and money bag are taken from the cartel’s hand, public fear transforms into national will.
Safe Shadow for Specialist Strikes
Strikes in vital sectors (IT, banking, energy) are difficult because the regime responds with violence. But external military pressure creates a “safe shadow.”
When the regime is engaged in defending its own power centers against external surgery, internal specialists can more boldly and with less risk paralyze the cartel’s financial and energy heart.
Censorship Breakdown: Coordination Like 2009
Here it is not merely internet distribution, but the “effect of military intervention” on disabling the regime’s jamming and filtering equipment. If jamming equipment and the regime’s surveillance network are disabled through electronic warfare or military surgery, people will coordinate again like 2009 (but with hundredfold experience).
Internet without barriers means streets transforming back into victory squares.
What if the country fragments?
Fragmentation is the regime’s heartfelt wish to frighten you and keep you in a cage. On the contrary, keeping this regime with its drying of lakes, destruction of national resources, and creating resentment among ethnicities, guarantees Iran’s actual future fragmentation.
Freedom and rule of law is the only glue that keeps Kurd, Lor, Turk, and Persian together in a “powerful Iran.”
What is the human cost of intervention?
We must courageously ask: what is the cost of difficult surgery compared to the gradual death of a nation under torture and poverty? Right now, thousands of Iranians die annually from poverty-induced suicides, executions, air pollution, and health system destruction.
This surgery is to “stop continuous death,” not start it.
Definitely not! Countries move based on their interests. But our art must be to understand that today “world interests” (getting rid of an atomic and terrorist cartel) align with “our interests” (achieving freedom).
We are not talking about anyone’s compassion, we are talking about a “strategic alliance” to eliminate a common threat.
Part Eight: The Necessity of Shadow Government and Coalition
Shadow Government: Readiness for the Day After
Military intervention without a coherent political alternative can lead to chaos. We need a coalition that from today has a “city administration plan” and “securing people’s bread” for the day after the fall.
The world must know that with the cartel’s fall, Iran will be governed by its specialists, not new extremists.
From Revenge to Justice: Exit Path for Lower Ranks
To prevent complete social collapse, the exit path must be open for lower-rank members of armed forces. If they know that by surrendering and not spilling people’s blood, they will be judged in a fair court (not street revenge), they will put down their weapons faster.
We need “transitional justice,” not a new cycle of bloodshed.
Part Nine: Reza Pahlavi – Beyond Nostalgia, Within Reality
We must be honest with ourselves; no matter how valid criticisms of Reza Pahlavi’s performance or associates may be, the loud voice of the street cannot be silenced. He is not merely a “name”; he is the only figure who for over 40 years, with all ups and downs, has remained in the arena, presented programs, and built cadres for the transition day.
Slogans deep in Iran’s soil show that for a large part of society, he is a symbol of stability and return to rational orbit.
The Nightmare of 1979 Must Not Repeat
Fear of repeating past mistakes should not freeze us in the current situation. We are not the nation of 1979; today’s Iranian awareness and hard lessons learned from history will not allow tyranny to replace tyranny.
He has repeatedly emphasized that his goal is not “monarchy,” but “representing people to reach the ballot box.”
Bitter Reality of Confrontation
I know how difficult it is for those who have fought against this name for decades to accept this reality. But we must ask: if the struggles of these years, instead of getting caught in “funds” and scattered projects, had proceeded more purposefully and clearly, would we not be at this point today?
Today is not the time to be hostage to ideology; it is time for realism to save the homeland.
In our history it is bitterly remembered that a nation, after years of ruin, finally realized the value of what it lost. But today is not the time to drown in regret; it is time to use this “symbolic capital” to break the deadlock.
At the moment of cartel surgery, we need someone who has the necessary weight and acceptability for dialogue with the world and calming the internal body; Reza Pahlavi in these coordinates is a “national necessity” for safe passage.
Conclusion: A Future in Our Hands
Today’s Iranian struggle is not to escape a “possible colonialism” in the future, but to end a “currently existing occupation.” The ruling cartel, by taking 85 million Iranians hostage and auctioning national resources with astronomical discounts to the East, has practically turned Iran into an extractive colony where people are not citizens but subjects of a plundering system.
This analysis shows that:
1. Civil resistance alone is not enough because the cartel is not dependent on people
2. Strikes without financial support and national solidarity cannot paralyze the cartel
3. The regime’s financial artery must be cut – the ghost fleet is the key to cartel survival
4. Iran is occupied right now – not by foreign force, but by internal cartel
5. Strategic surgery can change the balance of power
6. Iran will not become Syria because it has cohesive national identity and ready elites
The path ahead is difficult, but silence and waiting only lead to deepening occupation and destroying future generations.
We will reclaim our homeland from the occupiers’ grasp – not with bare hands, but with awareness, unity, and strategic assistance.
[1] Dahl, R. A. (1971). Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. Yale University Press.
[2] U.S. Department of State. (2026, February 6). Sanctions to Combat Illicit Traders of Iranian Oil and the Shadow Fleet. https://www.state.gov/
[3] Freedom House. (2024). Restricting the Flow of Funds to Iran’s Repression Apparatus. Policy Brief.
[4] Žižek, S. (2008). Violence: Six Sideways Reflections. Picador.
[5] Chenoweth, E., & Stephan, M. J. (2011). Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict. Columbia University Press.
[6] Fanon, F. (1961). The Wretched of the Earth. Grove Press.
[7] Mandela, N. (1994). Long Walk to Freedom. Little, Brown and Company.
[8] Economic activities of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. (2024). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_activities_of_the_Iranian_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps
[9] Iranian shadow fleet. (2025). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_shadow_fleet
[10] Al Jazeera. (2026, February 6). US imposes sanctions on ‘shadow fleet’ accused of transporting Iranian oil. https://www.aljazeera.com/
[11] United Against Nuclear Iran. (2026, February 4). UANI Statement on Iran Sanctions Evasion in Malaysia.
[12] Freedom House. (2024). Restricting the Flow of Funds to Iran’s Repression Apparatus.
[13] Economic activities of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. (2024). Wikipedia.
[14] Various economic reports 2024-2026 on Iran oil discount rates and revenue haircut analysis.
[15] Budget analysis Iran 2024-2026, IRGC oil allocation data.
[16] Iran News Wire. (2024, June 10). Brain Drain from Iran Accelerates Every Year. https://irannewswire.org/
[17] Iran Focus. (2025, June 11). Iran’s Brain Drain Crisis: How Corruption and Repression Are Driving a Generation Away. https://iranfocus.com/
[18] Mandela, N. (1994). Long Walk to Freedom. Little, Brown and Company.
[19] U.S. Department of the Treasury. (2026, January 22). Treasury Escalates Pressure on Iranian Regime for Killing Peaceful Protesters. Press Release SB0370.
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